Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Robin Hood

Checkout this commission free trading platform. 


Friday, November 28, 2014

Oil, Energy, and Tech

         It seems to be that my prediction on oil may be true, as I said that it would fall to 55 WTI before rebounding. It is currently at 68. Remember that I said this when it was at 80+ I have a futures account and wish I had the $ to trade in it. I have been dead accurate on some predictions considering the time frame that I thought that this would take place and what would take place. I am not advocating or saying you should trade oil futures. I just see a huge opportunity with oil right now, I see a 55 price in January, if not sooner. OPEC is not looking to maintain prices, they are looking to maintain production. I am seeing this as a way not show weakness to a growing oil production within the US and a decline of oil demand. Some sectors that were taking some huge gains today because of this are airlines (Delta) and transportation (UPS), of course, because lower fuel cost equal bigger margins for the airlines who are always highly leveraged. Some sectors getting pounded are Energy and some Technology (Solar.) Railroads (CSX) took a blow also because of the lower demand and growth of oil related drilling equipment, I don't think this is because of decline in shipments of oil or oil related products. Solar City on of my stocks that I see future growth in, will take a hit in the near future due to economic collapse of the oil price. SCTY was down 3% when I checked it this morning. I only see this going down further, more around $40 a share. I would buy at this point, currently I am planning on shorting SCTY for the short term. I will be looking for a point to flip and buy for the long term. Another are I am looking at is within an ETF call XLK that tracks the big technology companies. Such as Google and Apple. I see this as a big winner in the future. I am including an article on fuel hedging by Fortune.



I hold currently:
AAPL 117 Call Dec 12

I left my TWTR calls, that was an awful call. I dumped it early enough when I realized this, I got out without losing a ton. I still lost though. not fun! not used to that. 

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Oil and Production

Does everybody like cheap gas, we'll get ready for less than $2. OPEC and Saudi not to cut oil production. 69.00 a barrel right now.

Oil falls as OPEC opts not to cut production http://www.cnbc.com/id/102222286

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Record High and GDP

$AAPL 10M shares traded already, in under 20 min. Now a $700B company. GDP with a surprise at 3.9%, expexted 3.3%. OPEC in my mind will not cut production and will try an increase to consumption.

Morning Chat

Monday, November 24, 2014

"The Buy Side"

AAPL a month ago

I knew this stock was going to blow up a month ago. 100 Calls :)

S&P following midterm elections

Anybody who has a 401k or any retirement needs to put it in the S&P 500. Over the past 90 years the S&P has gained 15% the year following the midterm elections with republicans winning. ‪#‎damnnearguaranteed‬ (I am not licensed, so I cant legally give advice. Do your own due diligence

Friday, November 21, 2014

Trying to Graduate

Been super busy and trying to graduate college and get ready for Spartan Death Race. I will Blog later tonight. I would sell a call or put on TWTR at 40 right if I had the FCF. Talk later

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Sports Betting

Lets see how good I am at picking college football. I have LSU +2 1/2 and Georgia -2

Friday, November 14, 2014

NOV 14, Market and Commentary


What a crazy day it has been. I was awake most of last night, till around 1am. I was deciding on what I wanted to buy on Friday morning. I had some left to invest after my profit from holding AAPL NOV22 Calls. I decided on TWTR as you can see from my post early this morning. I purchased some Calls. 41 NOV 28 AND  41 NOV 14. I sold both before the close today. I have been experiencing with what I will call "Gorilla Trading" I sneak in and out of the market very quick with buying options with high delta very close to expiration. I was spot on today, with TWTR up around 4.5% at close and both options well over 200% return. I don't go for broke, but I risk enough to make it feel worth it. Since I am paying commission in all. I also saw were oil (Brent) and WTI are bot below 80 with it only looking like it is going to go lower, as I predicted. I wish I had enough to sell some oil futures, I don't have it like that yet. I have mentioned several times that I will be posting some info about my phone Interview with Turney Duff, I have every intention of doing so. I mention in my profile that I am a college student. I am currently writing a research paper that he was a source for and is mostly about him towards the end. With this in mind, I want to finish it and send it to him for the review. This is only the right thing to do, since he was kind of enough to help me with the info I needed. He is a really nice guy and humble about his accomplishments. I will publish my paper when I am done. The title I will reveal is "A Wall Street Trader's Story of Spectacular Excess Vs. A Las Vegas Handicapper's Story of Exaggerated Success" If you would have asked me a year ago if I would be talking to Turney Duff on the phone I would have said you were dreaming. Anyways moving on. I have been offered or connected with based off my Bloomberg BAT (a finance aptitude test) by several hedge funds wanting to discuss employment possibilities with them. Lets see how this goes. Not sure how my wife will take it, but she will go with the money goes. I saw today were Carl Icahn at one point in time today had taken a 123m hit on Hertz. Damn!! Many hedge funds had to release their holding today, I figured some of them had the same ideas I had. Most of the time I can figure out what they are doing, I just don't have the cash or backing to pull it off, so I just have to write about it so they people can see that I clearly know what I am doing and where the market it going. I just am a financial midget compared to a billionaire. The market was again positive today. I was very happy about DOW chemical who I wrote an analyst report for in my class was up very high. I still want to be invested in them. I am just trying to sneak in and out of the market right now so that I don't get trapped and have cash on hand. I will end by something that made me laugh recently. My wife and I were watching CNBC and it was the closing bell of the NYSE. I said "shhh" it closing bell I want to hear and see this. She said "they do this everyday?' I  said "like clock work at 430pm" blew her mind. She know how much I love the market and everything that goes on with it. I am not making fun of her, she is like most of the American Public. They have no idea what goes on, it is up to professionals like myself to inform them and be their advocate. I take pride and responsibility in that fact and want nothing more than to make them as successful as myself. I plan on opening a mutual fund in the future. So I will end on that. Look forward to Sunday night as I will be posting my pre Monday thoughts. I am a huge football fan (GO Dawgs) so I will more than likely not post this weekend. Feel free to email me with questions. I will always answer.

Long : CSX, IDTI, TWTR, DOW, AAPL (short term), and LOCK
Short : OIL, Hertz,  FB

I am not licensed and this is for informational purposes only. You should do all your own due diligence before you invest. I am not authorized to give advice or persuade you to invest by the SEC. 


I will be posting a full update later. I just wanted to update the fact that I just purchase 4 NOV28 TWTR 41 Call Contracts

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Turney Duff

I will be posting my review of my conversation/interview with Turney Duff (the author of 'The Buy Side") later on tonight.

NOV 13


      Today started off a little slow for me, I was running behind, but as I was walking to my cart to head off for the day. I checked my Stock App and saw apple at 113.40. I was so stoked. I was up tremendously and as I posted early I had a feeling in October that this would be a boom when the stock was around 99-100. Looks like I was dead on. I must mention that I did sale my options this morning, because I think 113 is going to be a sticking point to at least next week when my options expire I still had a huge profit. TWTR which I am bullish on had a huge gain yesterday of around 7.27% when I looked. I had a strong feeling this would happen. I saw there was a pull back today to around 40. Although, I see it around 50 by March 15. It is just too much of society today and I see it being a huge part of everyday life even more than it already is. CSX and IDTI are also up today slightly as of this morning. I have not checked them recently. they always seem to bounce back in the afternoon. LOCK which I mentioned to be bullish on is down slightly today at -.56%. I certainly believe this to be temporary. GLL is also an ETF that I am interested in and always have been. I still believe gold to be largely over valued. 


This is not investment advice nor am I licensed, this information is mention for conversation and info purposes. All investment decisions should be made after careful investigation and due diligence are your own part. 

Kelvin Brown

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Nov 12

Hello All,

      Looks like today has been a boom, as I am writing this AAPL stock is at 111.10 up 1.27% from yesterdays afternoon run up to 109.73. I think that now we have broke 110 I will hold my options for at least the end of this week. I have made a killing off the just 4 contracts I bought. I see apple by sum of next year trading around 125. They have had very few down days. One day I was watching there was a new all time high every 27 Minutes. As I said yesterday I was bullish on TWTR today on some promising news of a better platform and interface for app developers, TWTR was above 41.00 at 3.24% gain. I believe that I will be purchasing some Call options on these once I get out of my AAPL options. CSX was also up around .5% and has been on a rip the last two weeks, up around 2.00 per share. I am still bullish on IDTI although it trades down slightly around 17.90 today. If I had plenty of money I would buy all I could in IDTI, since they have 0 debt and have been constantly showing wall street an earnings season surprise. I look everyday at certain things I fell solid about. I am going to go back in GLL soon and also some options/purchase shares of TWTR. I think TWTR will trade around 70 by summer.  I tend to keep cash in my account for when I see great opportunities, otherwise I use it to buy shares in small growth companies I think have huge upside potential. There are a few that I am looking at like LOCK (lifelock) as people become more and more afraid of Identity theft. I will be posting tonight about two very interesting topics that are not market related. They are my recent interview with Turney Duff the NY times best selling author of "The Buy Side" and my recent recruitment invites by a few major investment banks and hedge funds (basically how it happened to me and how I got their attention)


Kelvin Brown

This is not investment advice, be sure to do your own due diligence and research

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Nov 11 Market

NOV 11,

First of all happy veterans day and to all veterans, thanks for your sacrifice. I am a veteran and do not take this day for granted for those who gave the ultimate sacrifice. Today I am going to talk about some things I am watching. First is AAPL stock and where it is going. I will go ahead and let everyone know on OCT 23 I bought NOV 22 104 AAPL calls. I tried to purchase Nov22 100 calls on the 21st, but the order did not go through. This was my fault. I am currently up significantly as you can see I am almost 2.5 times my investment. I am still holding it and I am not sure what to do. It seems that everyday the stock seems to pin up an down to 109 since it has passed 109. I think if AAPL does not close above 109 by end of week, I will sell my options, as I do not see it going any higher in the near future before my options expire. The market options significantly lower today and has risen slightly mid day. Let see what happens in the last hour of the day. Some stocks I am looking to go log on are TWTR, GLL, IDTI, and CSX. I have held CSX for a year, IDTI for 3 mths, and I don't currently own TWTR or GLL. If you look back to my older post you will see in April I purchased GLL through my fake school account, and today it is trading at 105.00. This is almost double from April. I hope I can make some good calls in the future. I see oil going down to 55 before making a rebound and gold going to 800 before a rebound. Lets see if I am right.

I must mention that I am not a licensed broker and nor am I advocating you purchase these securities. I am just using this blog to share my opinion and how I see the market going

Kelvin Brown

Monday, November 10, 2014

Im Back!!!

Im Back!!!

So, I have been out for awhile because I have been super busy with school. I am just trying to graduate at the moment. I am sorry. It seems that my call on gold was a huge success. I would watch for 800 before I see a jump back up. I am going to be posting everyday around 10am-1pm everyday during the week and maybe on Sundays for pre Monday market. I look forward to blogging again.

Kelvin Brown

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Gold is on the Way OUT (Gold 4 Month Low)

Just as I had described early in April, when I was shorting gold thru an index of ultra short gold. I was dead on, gold is going to continue to decline. I also had described shorting gold thru futures and my strategy on what would do my "fake" client the best based on his risk tolerance and interest in derivatives. I was doing some research and also studying for advanced economics when I came upon this article trying to wind down from a 10 hour straight study session. It is just my pence of saying that if you believe in what you are doing and what you think is right, stick with it and don't let down. Like Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham (I am not a value investor by the way, I'm too young) always said "the market is not there to inform you, it is there to serve you."

Kelvin Brown

Sunday, April 20, 2014

Yahoo Article on Cash Management and Daily Insight

Hello All,

I will not be blogging more than once or twice a week until I get done with my finals. I thought this would be a great article to share for info. They more concerned you become with your money, the more you will realize you will do these without even knowing you are knowing you are doing it. I had no formal schooling in Finance or Economics when I began learning Money/ Cash management. Which is also when I knew I was a autodidact (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autodidacticism) It is important to build a mote (from Warren Buffet)  around you household income and financial security, an impassible mote around  a business model and a financial/capital structure that is impenetrable, is what most investors look into before deciding to invest. My main point is to invest in yourself and treat yourself and finances like a business. Would anyone want to invest in you? Would they be long or short you ?  Always examine yourself and fix your weaknesses (that are controllable by you.)


Happy Easter
Kelvin Brown

p.s. anybody would was paying attention we made a killing on the AAPL short over 300% return

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Week Out

I am sorry I will not be posting this week due to being overloaded with school and registration. I am also having surgery for my deviated septum on Friday. I will be pr-op planning most of the week. I may be down another week, but we will see. 


Friday, April 4, 2014

Credit Default Swap and the Fall of the Housing Market


      Here is another guy to follow, he went from being a doctor at his residency to being a Hedge Fund Manager. He continued to beat the market year over year. His credit default swap (buying insurance on bonds backed by Investment banks and sold to investors as bonds, made him billions when the market crashed, had it not he would just be out the premiums on the insurance he bought, he predicted the crash correctly and made a hell of lot of money). This is how I realized how  it all works without all the financial lingo, basically he bought insurance on a car that was not his (bonds backed by mortgages) and paid his monthly insurance premiums on your car(monthly insurance rates, he was paying a million a mth). He would bet that you would wreck your car and if you didn't the bank or insurance company makes the premium, all good right. But what if the insurance company thinks you are a great driver and will never wreck your car and he thinks it is inevitable you will wreck your car and you are a bad driver. As soon as you wreck it he collects whatever sum he bought the insurance for and agreed with the bank to receive. this is a credit default swap. The issuers of these credit default swaps were some of the worlds major banks like goldman and  lehman brothers. They though their mortgage backed bonds were awesome and they enjoyed receiving a million dollar a month from Mr. Burry. The mortgages were no doc and faulty, soon to be foreclosed on. They would have waitresses making 50k a year buying 450K homes with an ARM mortgage not a fixed rate with very low interest rates, Well here comes 2008 and those loans made in 03-05 are beginning to default AKA (the mortgage meltdown or crisis) This sent the market tumbling and almost destroying many major investment banks (it did bankrupt Lehman). Mr. Burry collected his insurance on these defaulting loans and now was a billionaire, as were most of his clients. I am telling you this because don't always believe and conventional wisdom. If you have a gut feeling or know something isn't right, ask a professional or someone you trust with this knowledge what your are thinking and why. Finance is an art, not a science. Uncertainty in the market can make a chart look like a heart rate monitor.

If you want the whole story, and this book is awesome you probably won't be able to put it down. "The Big Short" is a tell all about credit default swaps and who got rich, who got fired, and went bankrupt because of them. Its funny because be fore Michael Burry approached the investment banks about this idea, there was no such thing as a credit default swap, he essentially created them in partnership with the investment banks and based on the investors and major managers greed

I just wanted to share this and question feel free to ask.

This is his blog.


and here is his bio


AAPL and FB hell yeah

This is my fake account I use for school 

Thursday, April 3, 2014

Todays Outlook Post Close

Looks like things turned out for at least today as I predicted. If you read my article and saw the positions I created April 2nd. Today was awesome for me. I shorted (put options)( I want the price to go down) Apple and FB, they both fell with FB falling enormously. This would be a huge gain.. NKE it seems like it may take a little longer for it to bounce back. I made my options so short of time because of time constraints. I will not do this for future articles. I see Nike being around 76 when I close my options on April 18. Gold was slightly off the mark as I suspected based on trend analysis. I have already been shorting this with my own money since March at $78 now trading at 88. I short it thru GLL an ultrashort gold. XRX or Xerox which I Bought a call option(I want the price to go up) is doing as expected and I plan to exercise my option around 13.50-14.00. Also in my article I mentioned going long on oil futures for May. I quoted the april 1 price of 99.63. Looks like this is in my favor today also at 100.33. I hope it stays this way (not for you who have to drive long ways everyday) for this short period of time as I suspect. I am not going to mention why I chose these because it is in my paper I already posted. I hope tomorrow is as good as today or better.

My outlook on the market April 2nd

I am going to post a recent assignment from one of my classes on here. It is lengthy but a good read. It describes some trades I recently made on my fake account on stocktrak.com and what I plan on doing in the future. It is written as though this person was my client and I am speaking to him, just so you don't get confused.

Kelvin Brown
Mr. B


Dear Mr. Investor,
As discussed in our original IPS statement, we agreed I would inform you of any changes needed and make them accordingly. This is to match both your level risk and required return. Recently, you have informed me that you are interested in the derivatives market. These derivative markets being specifically options and futures. Mr. Investor you describe wanting more return and would like to take on some more risk in order to achieve that, also you would like to add stock to your current position and provide insurance and profits through covered calls and protective puts. I am glad you have chosen to go into this area of investing, it can be highly rewarding, but you must be aware that it can be highly risky and cause great losses if not properly executed or timing on of the market is wrong. Knowing this and you and I speaking, I believe we have chosen some remarkable investments that I plan on executing April 2, 2014. In order to create these positions some of the non-producing stocks have been sold and will be re allocated to these purchases. These are the same ones we discussed and chose when we met, for your reference they are listed in the 4th item, under the selection of the covered call position.

1.    Put Option- We have decided to purchase two option contracts on Apple (AAPL) with a strike price of $540, premium of 6.55 per share, and an April 19th expiration date. This date was chosen due to time constraints of this assignment.  We believe that this is a good purchase because apple in the last two years has fluctuated greatly between roughly $800 a share and $400 dollars a share. This due in part to a mass exodus of the original apple team, some due to death and some resignation. This has been a massive blow to the team at apple, especially with the death of their found Steve Jobs, who was thought to be behind most of apple’s early success and known in his later years to drive the creativity of most projects completed at apple. Also, we believe that the tight lipped information and research that was of the Steve Jobs era of almost a CIA like headquarters are also gone, with leaked product images showing up on many websites. For years the price of Apple was driven higher and higher due to a cult following and a constant yearning due to secrecy of the new “Apple” or “i” product. These are gone. Now that I have given you some ideology of the trade, lets discuss the science or facts behind this investment decision. Apple currently holds 158.8 billion in cash. This is 30x what they had in 2004. This is a bad sign to the market, showing that apple does not have any worthwhile investment or R&D projects to delve this heaping amount of money into or pay as a profit to shareholders in dividends. This, in my opinion, is a negative signal to the market and will eventually drive the price of the stock well below $540 strike price we paid. I believe this will happen quickly because this information was just released by Moody’s Investors Service and Bloomberg April 1,2014.

2.    Call Option- On the call side we have decided to go with Nike (NKE) and purchase two option contracts. Nike is a strong company that has weathered many ups and down in the market. We think the price is currently depressed due to uncertainty in China’s Economy and the uncertainty between Russia and Ukraine. This deflation of the stock is temporary, created by the market and not based on the company. We understand that China is a major market and producer of Nike brand products, who also have a cult like following of some of their brands, such as “Jordan’s” which are released with mass crowds waiting line to get them. As soon as this uncertainty is resolved (we believe it will be favorably) we should see a 10%-12% movement upward of the stock, which is trading just off its 52 week high of 80.26, with target estimate of 82.23.  The 52-week high was just reached in early March 2014. We think in the long run Nike will return and exceed the target estimate exceeding our strike price of 75, premium of .79 a share, expiring April 19, 2014.  We are hoping to be at 85.

3.    Futures Short and Long- I will invest $10,000 (from the liquidated assets in item 4) between both short and long future contracts. We decided to stay with the idea that the market is unfoundedly depressed right now due to China’s Economy, Russia and Ukraine relations, and if this is just a correction. First I will discuss your Short Position. (Gold) Our current short position on gold has had a nice return to date of 8.01%. This is the idea that we will stay with. Gold is generally flocked to during economic crisis as a safe haven and ran from with the cash from their sale placed in stocks, as the market seems safer. So essentially if the DOW or S&P 500 rise, the price of gold will continue to go down, as was our original theory, just proven to be true. In a short statement I am going to short gold futures, staying with our original ideology of market theory, with a belief that gold will go well south of $1000. Now for the Long Position- (Petroleum-Crude Oil) as we all know oil is controlled by a cartel of oil producing nations and so is its ever-rising price. Russia being one of the world’s largest consumers of oil and taking into account its current relationship with Ukraine, I believe much of the worlds oil would have to be shifted to Russia in order to supply them for what endures ahead, have it war or other, if these indifferences were not settled. Also, as summer approaches in the U.S. many families are going on vacation, which is well known by OPEC, who conspire together and decide the price per barrel. I believe they will slow production in their countries or keep their excess of current production in reserve in their own country off the books, until the price has risen to meets its summer demand, and then the price will head back south late august as the summer tourist season closes. For these two reasons, we will be long oil futures, this is because the current price of $99.63 a barrel is low and will certainly be between 105-108 by the beginning of May.

4.  Covered Call and Protected Put- Covered Call and Protected Put sound just like what they are. A protected put is used, as insurance in case the price of a stock you own were to decrease you would have the put to throw you a life jacket and limit your overall losses. A covered call is used as an income-producing asset if you want to make money off your stock but do not want to sell it. This takes place as your stock price rises you could sell the Call option and make a profit without having to sell any shares. In covered call or protected put you are required to own the underlying asset and I am glad this is one of the ways you have chosen to branch out with your investments and include the derivative market, many people get started in options with these two strategies. As a Finance Major I like to give my client an investment plan they can understand and realize what is going on If you didn’t understand your own money being invested, it would be as if you bet on a football game not knowing who was playing, where they were playing, or if any rules had been changed. You would be scared. With that in mind lets go over what we decided for your Covered Call- We have decided on Xerox (XRX), this is an asset that you currently do not own so we will need to liquidate some other non-producing assets from your portfolio. We together chose these bottom five which are UNIS, GRPN, ADTN, WEN, BAC. This liquidation will free up assets of $49,167.00. Based on the Strike Price and Premium on the morning of April 2, 2014 we will be creating a position of two option contracts.  Xerox I believe is trading below its current valuation, with a low P/E of 12.56 and a nice dividend of 2.30%. It is currently off its 52 week high of 12.65, which I think can be recovered and surpassed and be in 14-15 dollar range. Protected Put- We have chosen Facebook (FB) as our protected put. Based on the Strike Price and Premium on the morning of April 2, 2014 we will be creating a position of two option contracts Whoa has this stock had a wild ride. IPO in 2012 came out around $52 dollars a share with 100 P/E and plummeted quickly into the teens. This company’s revenue stream is still uncertain at best. With the current climate with the NSA spying and the Snowden conflict still not at rest in the American publics mind. I can see some down side here if they were to lose another major income stream, as they lost GM in 2012. As many people know, you and what you like on FB is tracked. I think this is our potential downside. Alongside of that there is the ever mounting pressure between CEO and Founder Mark Zuckerburg and Shareholders/Board Members to snatch up any company that could compete an bring down FB such Oculus (which was recently acquired for $2 Billion.) The potential upside I see is, through these acquisitions as they gain market share and venture outside of tracking consumers who join Facebook in order to produce income. I see an upside in the mid 70’s and down side high 50’s depending on news and earning reports and estimates soon to be released 05/07/2014.

In parting, I hope that this plan is up to your satisfaction and needs. I know we have discussed this before hand; this just helps us remember why we did what we did in case we make a mistake so we can learn from it in the future. As always, I hope that all our well thought out strategies and brainstorming can turn out just as we expected with some high overall returns. I am glad you are interested in this side of the market and as your financial advisor I look forward to helping you meet any of your goals.


Kelvin Brown

Finance Blog (who am I? and what is this?)


My name is Kelvin Brown.  I am currently a Economics and Finance Undergrad who is deeply interested in both subjects. I am currently applying to many of the Ivy League and SEC schools for my graduate degree in finance or an MBA. I am also planning to obtain a CFA (chartered financial analyst) designation (to put it in perspective 1 out 5 who start will finish and obtain it, its is extremely difficult). I plan on sharing my ideas on the market day to day and what trades I would make and why on a daily basis. I hope you enjoy reading it and want to discuss/debate topics. I must mention that I am not giving advice and nor am I allowed to. I am not licensed to. So take my opinion at your own risk.

Dont hesitate to email or contact me if you have questions on how all this financial lingo works or just in general questions. I may or may not have the answer. Although I will get it for you. In the meantime I recommend reading "The Intelligent Investor" by Ben Graham for Value Investing and Strategy