Sunday, April 20, 2014

Yahoo Article on Cash Management and Daily Insight

Hello All,

I will not be blogging more than once or twice a week until I get done with my finals. I thought this would be a great article to share for info. They more concerned you become with your money, the more you will realize you will do these without even knowing you are knowing you are doing it. I had no formal schooling in Finance or Economics when I began learning Money/ Cash management. Which is also when I knew I was a autodidact ( It is important to build a mote (from Warren Buffet)  around you household income and financial security, an impassible mote around  a business model and a financial/capital structure that is impenetrable, is what most investors look into before deciding to invest. My main point is to invest in yourself and treat yourself and finances like a business. Would anyone want to invest in you? Would they be long or short you ?  Always examine yourself and fix your weaknesses (that are controllable by you.)

Happy Easter
Kelvin Brown

p.s. anybody would was paying attention we made a killing on the AAPL short over 300% return

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Week Out

I am sorry I will not be posting this week due to being overloaded with school and registration. I am also having surgery for my deviated septum on Friday. I will be pr-op planning most of the week. I may be down another week, but we will see. 


Friday, April 4, 2014

Credit Default Swap and the Fall of the Housing Market

      Here is another guy to follow, he went from being a doctor at his residency to being a Hedge Fund Manager. He continued to beat the market year over year. His credit default swap (buying insurance on bonds backed by Investment banks and sold to investors as bonds, made him billions when the market crashed, had it not he would just be out the premiums on the insurance he bought, he predicted the crash correctly and made a hell of lot of money). This is how I realized how  it all works without all the financial lingo, basically he bought insurance on a car that was not his (bonds backed by mortgages) and paid his monthly insurance premiums on your car(monthly insurance rates, he was paying a million a mth). He would bet that you would wreck your car and if you didn't the bank or insurance company makes the premium, all good right. But what if the insurance company thinks you are a great driver and will never wreck your car and he thinks it is inevitable you will wreck your car and you are a bad driver. As soon as you wreck it he collects whatever sum he bought the insurance for and agreed with the bank to receive. this is a credit default swap. The issuers of these credit default swaps were some of the worlds major banks like goldman and  lehman brothers. They though their mortgage backed bonds were awesome and they enjoyed receiving a million dollar a month from Mr. Burry. The mortgages were no doc and faulty, soon to be foreclosed on. They would have waitresses making 50k a year buying 450K homes with an ARM mortgage not a fixed rate with very low interest rates, Well here comes 2008 and those loans made in 03-05 are beginning to default AKA (the mortgage meltdown or crisis) This sent the market tumbling and almost destroying many major investment banks (it did bankrupt Lehman). Mr. Burry collected his insurance on these defaulting loans and now was a billionaire, as were most of his clients. I am telling you this because don't always believe and conventional wisdom. If you have a gut feeling or know something isn't right, ask a professional or someone you trust with this knowledge what your are thinking and why. Finance is an art, not a science. Uncertainty in the market can make a chart look like a heart rate monitor.

If you want the whole story, and this book is awesome you probably won't be able to put it down. "The Big Short" is a tell all about credit default swaps and who got rich, who got fired, and went bankrupt because of them. Its funny because be fore Michael Burry approached the investment banks about this idea, there was no such thing as a credit default swap, he essentially created them in partnership with the investment banks and based on the investors and major managers greed

I just wanted to share this and question feel free to ask.

This is his blog.

and here is his bio

AAPL and FB hell yeah

This is my fake account I use for school 

Thursday, April 3, 2014

Todays Outlook Post Close

Looks like things turned out for at least today as I predicted. If you read my article and saw the positions I created April 2nd. Today was awesome for me. I shorted (put options)( I want the price to go down) Apple and FB, they both fell with FB falling enormously. This would be a huge gain.. NKE it seems like it may take a little longer for it to bounce back. I made my options so short of time because of time constraints. I will not do this for future articles. I see Nike being around 76 when I close my options on April 18. Gold was slightly off the mark as I suspected based on trend analysis. I have already been shorting this with my own money since March at $78 now trading at 88. I short it thru GLL an ultrashort gold. XRX or Xerox which I Bought a call option(I want the price to go up) is doing as expected and I plan to exercise my option around 13.50-14.00. Also in my article I mentioned going long on oil futures for May. I quoted the april 1 price of 99.63. Looks like this is in my favor today also at 100.33. I hope it stays this way (not for you who have to drive long ways everyday) for this short period of time as I suspect. I am not going to mention why I chose these because it is in my paper I already posted. I hope tomorrow is as good as today or better.

My outlook on the market April 2nd

I am going to post a recent assignment from one of my classes on here. It is lengthy but a good read. It describes some trades I recently made on my fake account on and what I plan on doing in the future. It is written as though this person was my client and I am speaking to him, just so you don't get confused.

Kelvin Brown
Mr. B


Dear Mr. Investor,
As discussed in our original IPS statement, we agreed I would inform you of any changes needed and make them accordingly. This is to match both your level risk and required return. Recently, you have informed me that you are interested in the derivatives market. These derivative markets being specifically options and futures. Mr. Investor you describe wanting more return and would like to take on some more risk in order to achieve that, also you would like to add stock to your current position and provide insurance and profits through covered calls and protective puts. I am glad you have chosen to go into this area of investing, it can be highly rewarding, but you must be aware that it can be highly risky and cause great losses if not properly executed or timing on of the market is wrong. Knowing this and you and I speaking, I believe we have chosen some remarkable investments that I plan on executing April 2, 2014. In order to create these positions some of the non-producing stocks have been sold and will be re allocated to these purchases. These are the same ones we discussed and chose when we met, for your reference they are listed in the 4th item, under the selection of the covered call position.

1.    Put Option- We have decided to purchase two option contracts on Apple (AAPL) with a strike price of $540, premium of 6.55 per share, and an April 19th expiration date. This date was chosen due to time constraints of this assignment.  We believe that this is a good purchase because apple in the last two years has fluctuated greatly between roughly $800 a share and $400 dollars a share. This due in part to a mass exodus of the original apple team, some due to death and some resignation. This has been a massive blow to the team at apple, especially with the death of their found Steve Jobs, who was thought to be behind most of apple’s early success and known in his later years to drive the creativity of most projects completed at apple. Also, we believe that the tight lipped information and research that was of the Steve Jobs era of almost a CIA like headquarters are also gone, with leaked product images showing up on many websites. For years the price of Apple was driven higher and higher due to a cult following and a constant yearning due to secrecy of the new “Apple” or “i” product. These are gone. Now that I have given you some ideology of the trade, lets discuss the science or facts behind this investment decision. Apple currently holds 158.8 billion in cash. This is 30x what they had in 2004. This is a bad sign to the market, showing that apple does not have any worthwhile investment or R&D projects to delve this heaping amount of money into or pay as a profit to shareholders in dividends. This, in my opinion, is a negative signal to the market and will eventually drive the price of the stock well below $540 strike price we paid. I believe this will happen quickly because this information was just released by Moody’s Investors Service and Bloomberg April 1,2014.

2.    Call Option- On the call side we have decided to go with Nike (NKE) and purchase two option contracts. Nike is a strong company that has weathered many ups and down in the market. We think the price is currently depressed due to uncertainty in China’s Economy and the uncertainty between Russia and Ukraine. This deflation of the stock is temporary, created by the market and not based on the company. We understand that China is a major market and producer of Nike brand products, who also have a cult like following of some of their brands, such as “Jordan’s” which are released with mass crowds waiting line to get them. As soon as this uncertainty is resolved (we believe it will be favorably) we should see a 10%-12% movement upward of the stock, which is trading just off its 52 week high of 80.26, with target estimate of 82.23.  The 52-week high was just reached in early March 2014. We think in the long run Nike will return and exceed the target estimate exceeding our strike price of 75, premium of .79 a share, expiring April 19, 2014.  We are hoping to be at 85.

3.    Futures Short and Long- I will invest $10,000 (from the liquidated assets in item 4) between both short and long future contracts. We decided to stay with the idea that the market is unfoundedly depressed right now due to China’s Economy, Russia and Ukraine relations, and if this is just a correction. First I will discuss your Short Position. (Gold) Our current short position on gold has had a nice return to date of 8.01%. This is the idea that we will stay with. Gold is generally flocked to during economic crisis as a safe haven and ran from with the cash from their sale placed in stocks, as the market seems safer. So essentially if the DOW or S&P 500 rise, the price of gold will continue to go down, as was our original theory, just proven to be true. In a short statement I am going to short gold futures, staying with our original ideology of market theory, with a belief that gold will go well south of $1000. Now for the Long Position- (Petroleum-Crude Oil) as we all know oil is controlled by a cartel of oil producing nations and so is its ever-rising price. Russia being one of the world’s largest consumers of oil and taking into account its current relationship with Ukraine, I believe much of the worlds oil would have to be shifted to Russia in order to supply them for what endures ahead, have it war or other, if these indifferences were not settled. Also, as summer approaches in the U.S. many families are going on vacation, which is well known by OPEC, who conspire together and decide the price per barrel. I believe they will slow production in their countries or keep their excess of current production in reserve in their own country off the books, until the price has risen to meets its summer demand, and then the price will head back south late august as the summer tourist season closes. For these two reasons, we will be long oil futures, this is because the current price of $99.63 a barrel is low and will certainly be between 105-108 by the beginning of May.

4.  Covered Call and Protected Put- Covered Call and Protected Put sound just like what they are. A protected put is used, as insurance in case the price of a stock you own were to decrease you would have the put to throw you a life jacket and limit your overall losses. A covered call is used as an income-producing asset if you want to make money off your stock but do not want to sell it. This takes place as your stock price rises you could sell the Call option and make a profit without having to sell any shares. In covered call or protected put you are required to own the underlying asset and I am glad this is one of the ways you have chosen to branch out with your investments and include the derivative market, many people get started in options with these two strategies. As a Finance Major I like to give my client an investment plan they can understand and realize what is going on If you didn’t understand your own money being invested, it would be as if you bet on a football game not knowing who was playing, where they were playing, or if any rules had been changed. You would be scared. With that in mind lets go over what we decided for your Covered Call- We have decided on Xerox (XRX), this is an asset that you currently do not own so we will need to liquidate some other non-producing assets from your portfolio. We together chose these bottom five which are UNIS, GRPN, ADTN, WEN, BAC. This liquidation will free up assets of $49,167.00. Based on the Strike Price and Premium on the morning of April 2, 2014 we will be creating a position of two option contracts.  Xerox I believe is trading below its current valuation, with a low P/E of 12.56 and a nice dividend of 2.30%. It is currently off its 52 week high of 12.65, which I think can be recovered and surpassed and be in 14-15 dollar range. Protected Put- We have chosen Facebook (FB) as our protected put. Based on the Strike Price and Premium on the morning of April 2, 2014 we will be creating a position of two option contracts Whoa has this stock had a wild ride. IPO in 2012 came out around $52 dollars a share with 100 P/E and plummeted quickly into the teens. This company’s revenue stream is still uncertain at best. With the current climate with the NSA spying and the Snowden conflict still not at rest in the American publics mind. I can see some down side here if they were to lose another major income stream, as they lost GM in 2012. As many people know, you and what you like on FB is tracked. I think this is our potential downside. Alongside of that there is the ever mounting pressure between CEO and Founder Mark Zuckerburg and Shareholders/Board Members to snatch up any company that could compete an bring down FB such Oculus (which was recently acquired for $2 Billion.) The potential upside I see is, through these acquisitions as they gain market share and venture outside of tracking consumers who join Facebook in order to produce income. I see an upside in the mid 70’s and down side high 50’s depending on news and earning reports and estimates soon to be released 05/07/2014.

In parting, I hope that this plan is up to your satisfaction and needs. I know we have discussed this before hand; this just helps us remember why we did what we did in case we make a mistake so we can learn from it in the future. As always, I hope that all our well thought out strategies and brainstorming can turn out just as we expected with some high overall returns. I am glad you are interested in this side of the market and as your financial advisor I look forward to helping you meet any of your goals.


Kelvin Brown

Finance Blog (who am I? and what is this?)


My name is Kelvin Brown.  I am currently a Economics and Finance Undergrad who is deeply interested in both subjects. I am currently applying to many of the Ivy League and SEC schools for my graduate degree in finance or an MBA. I am also planning to obtain a CFA (chartered financial analyst) designation (to put it in perspective 1 out 5 who start will finish and obtain it, its is extremely difficult). I plan on sharing my ideas on the market day to day and what trades I would make and why on a daily basis. I hope you enjoy reading it and want to discuss/debate topics. I must mention that I am not giving advice and nor am I allowed to. I am not licensed to. So take my opinion at your own risk.

Dont hesitate to email or contact me if you have questions on how all this financial lingo works or just in general questions. I may or may not have the answer. Although I will get it for you. In the meantime I recommend reading "The Intelligent Investor" by Ben Graham for Value Investing and Strategy