Kelvin Brown's View on Investments, Capital Markets, and Money Markets

Friday, November 28, 2014

Oil, Energy, and Tech

It seems to be that my prediction on oil may be true, as I said that it would fall to 55 WTI before rebounding. It is currently at 68. Remember that I said this when it was at 80+ I have a futures account and wish I had the $ to trade in it. I have been dead accurate on some predictions considering the time frame that I thought that this would take place and what would take place. I am not advocating or saying you should trade oil futures. I just see a huge opportunity with oil right now, I see a 55 price in January, if not sooner. OPEC is not looking to maintain prices, they are looking to maintain production. I am seeing this as a way not show weakness to a growing oil production within the US and a decline of oil demand. Some sectors that were taking some huge gains today because of this are airlines (Delta) and transportation (UPS), of course, because lower fuel cost equal bigger margins for the airlines who are always highly leveraged. Some sectors getting pounded are Energy and some Technology (Solar.) Railroads (CSX) took a blow also because of the lower demand and growth of oil related drilling equipment, I don't think this is because of decline in shipments of oil or oil related products. Solar City on of my stocks that I see future growth in, will take a hit in the near future due to economic collapse of the oil price. SCTY was down 3% when I checked it this morning. I only see this going down further, more around $40 a share. I would buy at this point, currently I am planning on shorting SCTY for the short term. I will be looking for a point to flip and buy for the long term. Another are I am looking at is within an ETF call XLK that tracks the big technology companies. Such as Google and Apple. I see this as a big winner in the future. I am including an article on fuel hedging by Fortune.

http://fortune.com/2014/06/02/secret-club-kate-kelly

Mentioned
WTI
SCTY
CSX
GOOG
AAPL
Delta
UPS

I hold currently:
AAPL 117 Call Dec 12
IDTI
CSX
FHYVX

I left my TWTR calls, that was an awful call. I dumped it early enough when I realized this, I got out without losing a ton. I still lost though. not fun! not used to that.

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Oil and Production

Does everybody like cheap gas, we'll get ready for less than $2. OPEC and Saudi not to cut oil production. 69.00 a barrel right now.

Oil falls as OPEC opts not to cut production http://www.cnbc.com/id/102222286

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Record High and GDP

$AAPL 10M shares traded already, in under 20 min. Now a $700B company. GDP with a surprise at 3.9%, expexted 3.3%. OPEC in my mind will not cut production and will try an increase to consumption.

Morning Chat
Kelvin